| IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1 (July, 2000) | |||||||||||||||
| World - A1 IMAGE | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | |||
| Population | Million | 5280 | 6122 | 6892 | 7618 | 8196 | 8547 | 8708 | 8671 | 8484 | 8142 | 7663 | 7047 | ||
| GNP/GDP (mex) | Trillion US$ | 21.0 | 26.7 | 37.9 | 55.9 | 81.2 | 116.2 | 163.5 | 219.4 | 283.2 | 365.2 | 446.4 | 518.8 | ||
| 1990 US$/cap | 3971 | 4357 | 5503 | 7342 | 9907 | 13598 | 18772 | 25300 | 33383 | 44853 | 58248 | 73621 | NOT ppp-corrected | ||
| Final Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Non-commercial | 54 | 59 | 65 | 63 | 59 | 50 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 25 | |||
| Solids | 43 | 44 | 45 | 52 | 59 | 66 | 69 | 65 | 59 | 52 | 47 | 40 | |||
| Liquids | 106 | 119 | 146 | 177 | 198 | 213 | 209 | 204 | 200 | 190 | 175 | 161 | |||
| Gas | 46 | 55 | 73 | 84 | 90 | 100 | 119 | 134 | 145 | 154 | 157 | 156 | |||
| Electricity | 39 | 55 | 88 | 147 | 220 | 307 | 373 | 410 | 427 | 428 | 408 | 376 | |||
| Others | 2 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 50 | 68 | 85 | 93 | 93 | 92 | 91 | 85 | |||
| Total | 289 | 336 | 429 | 551 | 677 | 804 | 895 | 944 | 959 | 950 | 907 | 843 | |||
| Primary Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 105 | 111 | 129 | 170 | 245 | 298 | 301 | 271 | 237 | 198 | 163 | 129 | |||
| Oil | 129 | 143 | 187 | 242 | 285 | 300 | 348 | 352 | 340 | 320 | 280 | 237 | |||
| Gas | 62 | 73 | 117 | 163 | 188 | 222 | 259 | 278 | 283 | 278 | 264 | 244 | |||
| Non-Fossil Electric | 8 | 14 | 23 | 39 | 61 | 91 | 128 | 162 | 193 | 218 | 230 | 230 | |||
| Biomass | 3 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 69 | 102 | 129 | 141 | 138 | 133 | 128 | 116 | |||
| Other Renewables | 61 | 69 | 77 | 76 | 74 | 68 | 59 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | |||
| Total | 368 | 416 | 544 | 725 | 923 | 1080 | 1224 | 1262 | 1246 | 1201 | 1116 | 1002 | |||
| Cumulative Resources Production ZJ | NOT use but Production | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 17.0 | 19.2 | 21.0 | 22.4 | |||
| Oil | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 21.0 | 24.3 | 27.3 | 29.9 | |||
| Gas | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 17.5 | 20.3 | 22.8 | |||
| Cumulative CO2 Emissions | GtC | 0.0 | 75.3 | 161.5 | 268.4 | 404.0 | 567.1 | 748.7 | 934.5 | 1116.8 | 1291.7 | 1451.8 | 1594.1 | ||
| Carbon Sequestraction | GtC | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.6 | Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) | |
| Land Use | Million ha | ||||||||||||||
| Cropland | 1435 | 1382 | 1450 | 1524 | 1573 | 1571 | 1530 | 1490 | 1439 | 1355 | 1295 | 1208 | Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species | ||
| Grasslands | 3435 | 3295 | 3313 | 3362 | 3381 | 3271 | 3064 | 2849 | 2705 | 2597 | 2505 | 2347 | Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species' | ||
| Energy Biomass | 8 | 10 | 26 | 82 | 177 | 274 | 374 | 404 | 391 | 384 | 367 | 334 | |||
| Forest | 4277 | 4266 | 4224 | 4251 | 4147 | 4132 | 4173 | 4256 | 4362 | 4490 | 4564 | 4700 | |||
| Others | 3916 | 4119 | 4058 | 3853 | 3793 | 3824 | 3931 | 4072 | 4174 | 4246 | 4340 | 4483 | |||
| Total | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | 13071 | |||
| Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) | |||||||||||||||
| Fossil Fuel CO2 | GtC | 5.99 | 6.90 | 8.50 | 11.10 | 14.30 | 17.60 | 18.70 | 18.40 | 17.80 | 16.40 | 14.60 | 12.90 | ||
| Other CO2 | GtC | 1.11 | 1.07 | 0.77 | 1.01 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.50 | Approximate calculation from complex land-use module | |
| Total CO2 | GtC | 7.10 | 7.97 | 9.27 | 12.11 | 15.00 | 17.61 | 18.71 | 18.45 | 18.02 | 16.96 | 15.07 | 13.39 | ||
| CH4 total | MtCH4 | 310 | 323 | 360 | 423 | 475 | 499 | 512 | 523 | 525 | 513 | 488 | 452 | ||
| N2O total | MtN2O-N | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.1 | ||
| SOx total | MtS | 70.9 | 69.0 | 77.5 | 90.9 | 108.5 | 121.0 | 119.5 | 114.8 | 106.8 | 95.5 | 83.0 | 71.2 | ||
| CFC/HFC/HCFC | MtC eq. | 1672 | 883 | 791 | 337 | 369 | 482 | 566 | 654 | 659 | 654 | 639 | 614 | ||
| PFC | MtC eq. | 32 | 25 | 31 | 43 | 61 | 77 | 89 | 97 | 106 | 114 | 119 | 115 | ||
| SF6 | MtC eq. | 38 | 40 | 43 | 48 | 66 | 99 | 119 | 127 | 113 | 88 | 84 | 95 | ||
| CO | MtCO | 879 | 877 | 832 | 978 | 1054 | 913 | 949 | 1012 | 1089 | 1141 | 1110 | 1080 | ||
| NMVOC | Mt | 139 | 141 | 144 | 157 | 163 | 159 | 158 | 154 | 152 | 149 | 142 | 133 | ||
| NOx | MtN | 31 | 32 | 38 | 48 | 57 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 61 | 57 | 51 | 45 | ||
| OECD90 - A1 IMAGE | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Remarks | ||
| Population | Million | 799 | 849 | 890 | 932 | 965 | 990 | 1001 | 1005 | 1009 | 1020 | 1029 | 1032 | ||
| GNP/GDP (mex) | Trillion US$ | 16.5 | 20.2 | 26.9 | 35.6 | 44.3 | 53.0 | 62.4 | 71.3 | 77.9 | 88.7 | 101.2 | 114.6 | ||
| 1990 US$/cap | 20649 | 23840 | 30132 | 38187 | 45864 | 53609 | 62284 | 70841 | 77152 | 87018 | 98251 | 111071 | NOT ppp-corrected | ||
| Final Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Non-commercial | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Solids | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Liquids | 57 | 62 | 68 | 71 | 67 | 61 | 53 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 42 | |||
| Gas | 24 | 27 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 40 | 43 | 45 | 49 | 52 | 55 | |||
| Electricity | 24 | 36 | 52 | 66 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | |||
| Others | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | |||
| Total | 120 | 141 | 168 | 191 | 203 | 207 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 209 | 212 | 214 | |||
| Primary Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 37 | 47 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 42 | 37 | 35 | 32 | 30 | |||
| Oil | 67 | 76 | 84 | 88 | 84 | 67 | 65 | 60 | 57 | 56 | 54 | 50 | |||
| Gas | 28 | 36 | 46 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 53 | 55 | 56 | 58 | 61 | 64 | |||
| Non-Fossil Electric | 7 | 12 | 19 | 29 | 36 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 51 | 54 | |||
| Biomass | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 24 | |||
| Other Renewables | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |||
| Total | 151 | 183 | 216 | 240 | 248 | 240 | 242 | 240 | 236 | 235 | 237 | 233 | |||
| Cumulative Resources Production ZJ | NOT use but Production | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | |||
| Oil | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 9.1 | |||
| Gas | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | |||
| Cumulative CO2 Emissions | GtC | 0.0 | 30.1 | 62.6 | 95.4 | 127.6 | 159.5 | 191.6 | 223.7 | 256.0 | 288.6 | 321.4 | 354.6 | ||
| Carbon Sequestraction | GtC | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) | |
| Land Use | Million ha | ||||||||||||||
| Cropland | 379 | 379 | 378 | 385 | 382 | 383 | 391 | 394 | 395 | 395 | 399 | 394 | Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species | ||
| Grasslands | 786 | 676 | 584 | 516 | 487 | 479 | 472 | 467 | 462 | 458 | 459 | 453 | Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species' | ||
| Energy Biomass | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 43 | 51 | 55 | 52 | 52 | 43 | |||
| Forest | 1115 | 1167 | 1215 | 1259 | 1273 | 1272 | 1263 | 1256 | 1250 | 1252 | 1245 | 1262 | |||
| Others | 955 | 1016 | 1059 | 1070 | 1076 | 1073 | 1070 | 1071 | 1076 | 1081 | 1083 | 1087 | |||
| Total | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | 3238 | |||
| Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) | |||||||||||||||
| Fossil Fuel CO2 | GtC | 2.83 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | ||
| Other CO2 | GtC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.13 | Approximate calculation from complex land-use module | |
| Total CO2 | GtC | 2.83 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.26 | 3.17 | 3.22 | 3.20 | 3.22 | 3.24 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.33 | ||
| CH4 total | MtCH4 | 73 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 83 | 85 | 88 | 89 | 89 | 91 | 91 | 86 | ||
| N2O total | MtN2O-N | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | ||
| SOx total | MtS | 22.7 | 17.0 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.9 | ||
| HFC | MtC eq. | 19 | 58 | 110 | 108 | 115 | 118 | 122 | 123 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 125 | ||
| PFC | MtC eq. | 18 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | ||
| SF6 | MtC eq. | 23 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 20 | ||
| CO | MtCO | 179 | 161 | 177 | 182 | 180 | 180 | 173 | 172 | 169 | 173 | 179 | 177 | ||
| NMVOC | Mt | 42 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 23 | ||
| NOx | MtN | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | ||
| REF - A1 IMAGE | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Remarks | ||
| Population | Million | 412 | 429 | 437 | 443 | 445 | 443 | 432 | 419 | 401 | 384 | 365 | 347 | ||
| GNP/GDP (mex) | Trillion US$ | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 17.2 | 22.7 | 28.4 | 34.3 | ||
| 1990 US$/cap | 2307 | 1657 | 2379 | 4379 | 7869 | 13381 | 21344 | 30936 | 42883 | 59160 | 77741 | 98994 | NOT ppp-corrected | ||
| Final Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Non-commercial | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Solids | 14 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Liquids | 21 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | |||
| Gas | 15 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Electricity | 9 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 30 | 34 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 27 | |||
| Others | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Total | 62 | 41 | 40 | 50 | 59 | 68 | 71 | 70 | 67 | 63 | 59 | 56 | |||
| Primary Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 36 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 11 | |||
| Oil | 28 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 20 | |||
| Gas | 25 | 15 | 16 | 23 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 13 | |||
| Non-Fossil Electric | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | |||
| Biomass | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | |||
| Other Renewables | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Total | 95 | 52 | 52 | 67 | 82 | 99 | 103 | 98 | 90 | 84 | 77 | 70 | |||
| Cumulative Resources Production ZJ | NOT use but Production | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | |||
| Oil | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | |||
| Gas | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | |||
| Cumulative CO2 Emissions | GtC | 0.0 | 11.0 | 20.1 | 29.7 | 40.0 | 51.7 | 65.4 | 79.5 | 93.0 | 106.4 | 119.4 | 131.9 | ||
| Carbon Sequestraction | GtC | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) | |
| Land Use | Million ha | ||||||||||||||
| Cropland | 278 | 223 | 229 | 227 | 224 | 218 | 207 | 199 | 189 | 179 | 169 | 164 | Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species | ||
| Grasslands | 392 | 307 | 329 | 339 | 333 | 310 | 279 | 258 | 238 | 234 | 226 | 221 | Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species' | ||
| Energy Biomass | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 46 | 84 | 87 | 92 | 83 | 83 | 92 | |||
| Forest | 1146 | 1174 | 1167 | 1250 | 1242 | 1238 | 1238 | 1233 | 1227 | 1226 | 1218 | 1200 | |||
| Others | 461 | 574 | 551 | 455 | 460 | 466 | 471 | 501 | 532 | 556 | 582 | 600 | |||
| Total | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | 2278 | |||
| Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) | |||||||||||||||
| Fossil Fuel CO2 | GtC | 1.30 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 1.11 | 1.31 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.41 | 1.31 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 0.91 | ||
| Other CO2 | GtC | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.09 | -0.27 | -0.30 | -0.18 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.35 | Approximate calculation from complex land-use module | |
| Total CO2 | GtC | 1.30 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.31 | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.25 | 1.26 | ||
| CH4 total | MtCH4 | 47 | 39 | 41 | 51 | 57 | 58 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 40 | ||
| N2O total | MtN2O-N | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||
| SOx total | MtS | 17.0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 5.8 | ||
| HFC | MtC eq. | 0 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 31 | ||
| PFC | MtC eq. | 7 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 24 | ||
| SF6 | MtC eq. | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 11 | ||
| CO | MtCO | 69 | 41 | 34 | 38 | 45 | 52 | 55 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 54 | 52 | ||
| NMVOC | Mt | 16 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | ||
| NOx | MtN | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | ||
| ASIA - A1 IMAGE | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Remarks | ||
| Population | Million | 2781 | 3246 | 3609 | 3929 | 4142 | 4235 | 4220 | 4088 | 3871 | 3594 | 3262 | 2886 | ||
| GNP/GDP (mex) | Trillion US$ | 1.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 16.1 | 28.8 | 48.2 | 73.2 | 103.0 | 139.3 | 173.5 | 200.7 | ||
| 1990 US$/cap | 337 | 532 | 874 | 1553 | 2838 | 5140 | 8819 | 13804 | 19837 | 27431 | 35626 | 44069 | NOT ppp-corrected | ||
| Final Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Non-commercial | 29 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 26 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Solids | 20 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 27 | 23 | 19 | 15 | |||
| Liquids | 12 | 21 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 59 | 58 | 57 | 55 | 51 | 46 | 42 | |||
| Gas | 2 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 27 | 30 | 39 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 47 | 43 | |||
| Electricity | 4 | 9 | 20 | 42 | 75 | 119 | 150 | 166 | 173 | 171 | 159 | 139 | |||
| Others | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 33 | 40 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 31 | |||
| Total | 68 | 96 | 127 | 174 | 232 | 295 | 334 | 352 | 352 | 341 | 314 | 277 | |||
| Primary Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 28 | 42 | 53 | 71 | 99 | 126 | 125 | 108 | 91 | 70 | 50 | 36 | |||
| Oil | 16 | 27 | 40 | 59 | 77 | 76 | 96 | 98 | 92 | 84 | 71 | 57 | |||
| Gas | 4 | 12 | 29 | 52 | 76 | 87 | 94 | 110 | 98 | 88 | 86 | 65 | |||
| Non-Fossil Electric | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 55 | 75 | 91 | 104 | 107 | 102 | |||
| Biomass | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 52 | 61 | 62 | 55 | 53 | 46 | 36 | |||
| Other Renewables | 30 | 34 | 36 | 33 | 29 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | |||
| Total | 79 | 116 | 163 | 235 | 326 | 397 | 449 | 468 | 442 | 413 | 373 | 308 | |||
| Cumulative Resources Production ZJ | NOT use but Production | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | |||
| Oil | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | |||
| Gas | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |||
| Cumulative CO2 Emissions | GtC | 0.0 | 17.8 | 42.1 | 76.2 | 123.5 | 184.2 | 251.8 | 317.7 | 378.5 | 432.7 | 478.4 | 515.6 | ||
| Carbon Sequestraction | GtC | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) | |
| Land Use | Million ha | ||||||||||||||
| Cropland | 382 | 386 | 396 | 413 | 428 | 430 | 409 | 394 | 372 | 327 | 306 | 267 | Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species | ||
| Grasslands | 561 | 664 | 692 | 747 | 770 | 778 | 697 | 626 | 601 | 560 | 539 | 473 | Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species' | ||
| Energy Biomass | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 95 | 142 | 141 | 117 | 129 | 126 | 97 | |||
| Forest | 488 | 397 | 369 | 331 | 286 | 252 | 244 | 273 | 335 | 403 | 438 | 515 | |||
| Others | 545 | 527 | 515 | 470 | 439 | 421 | 484 | 543 | 551 | 557 | 566 | 624 | |||
| Total | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | 1976 | |||
| Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) | |||||||||||||||
| Fossil Fuel CO2 | GtC | 1.15 | 1.78 | 2.58 | 3.68 | 5.08 | 6.38 | 6.58 | 6.18 | 5.68 | 4.88 | 3.98 | 3.28 | ||
| Other CO2 | GtC | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.06 | Approximate calculation from complex land-use module | |
| Total CO2 | GtC | 1.53 | 2.03 | 2.82 | 4.00 | 5.48 | 6.66 | 6.85 | 6.33 | 5.82 | 5.02 | 4.12 | 3.33 | ||
| CH4 total | MtCH4 | 113 | 125 | 136 | 157 | 181 | 198 | 206 | 206 | 202 | 191 | 183 | 166 | ||
| N2O total | MtN2O-N | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | ||
| SOx total | MtS | 17.7 | 25.3 | 29.9 | 33.6 | 39.5 | 42.9 | 39.4 | 35.8 | 32.2 | 27.3 | 21.9 | 17.6 | ||
| HFC | MtC eq. | 0 | 5 | 18 | 45 | 92 | 153 | 224 | 292 | 292 | 285 | 275 | 262 | ||
| PFC | MtC eq. | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 46 | 48 | 46 | ||
| SF6 | MtC eq. | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 28 | 42 | 50 | 55 | 48 | 35 | 33 | 37 | ||
| CO | MtCO | 235 | 270 | 294 | 332 | 406 | 378 | 403 | 418 | 426 | 421 | 420 | 385 | ||
| NMVOC | Mt | 33 | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 | 39 | ||
| NOx | MtN | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 13 | ||
| ALM - A1 IMAGE | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Remarks | ||
| Population | Million | 1287 | 1597 | 1954 | 2315 | 2643 | 2879 | 3055 | 3159 | 3202 | 3145 | 3006 | 2783 | ||
| GNP/GDP (mex) | Trillion US$ | 2.1 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 17.3 | 28.5 | 43.7 | 62.0 | 85.2 | 114.4 | 143.3 | 169.2 | ||
| 1990 US$/cap | 1653 | 1902 | 2738 | 4210 | 6556 | 9905 | 14317 | 19628 | 26606 | 36389 | 47687 | 60795 | NOT ppp-corrected | ||
| Final Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Non-commercial | 16 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 13 | |||
| Solids | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 14 | |||
| Liquids | 15 | 23 | 37 | 53 | 67 | 77 | 82 | 84 | 85 | 81 | 73 | 65 | |||
| Gas | 4 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 30 | 36 | 43 | 47 | 48 | 49 | |||
| Electricity | 2 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 50 | 81 | 112 | 133 | 147 | 151 | 144 | 132 | |||
| Others | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 24 | |||
| Total | 39 | 58 | 94 | 135 | 184 | 233 | 281 | 315 | 334 | 336 | 322 | 296 | |||
| Primary Energy | EJ | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 3 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 75 | 97 | 102 | 97 | 87 | 75 | 66 | 52 | |||
| Oil | 17 | 27 | 47 | 75 | 101 | 131 | 157 | 165 | 165 | 155 | 132 | 109 | |||
| Gas | 6 | 10 | 26 | 37 | 34 | 56 | 88 | 91 | 109 | 115 | 100 | 102 | |||
| Non-Fossil Electric | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 43 | 54 | 60 | 62 | |||
| Biomass | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 21 | 36 | 45 | 49 | 45 | 47 | 46 | |||
| Other Renewables | 18 | 22 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 21 | |||
| Total | 43 | 64 | 114 | 183 | 266 | 344 | 429 | 456 | 478 | 469 | 428 | 391 | |||
| Cumulative Resources Production ZJ | NOT use but Production | ||||||||||||||
| Coal | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | |||
| Oil | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 15.4 | |||
| Gas | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | |||
| Cumulative CO2 Emissions | GtC | 0.0 | 16.4 | 36.8 | 67.2 | 112.9 | 171.6 | 239.9 | 313.6 | 389.3 | 464.0 | 532.6 | 592.1 | ||
| Carbon Sequestraction | GtC | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) | |
| Land Use | Million ha | ||||||||||||||
| Cropland | 397 | 394 | 447 | 499 | 540 | 540 | 523 | 503 | 483 | 455 | 421 | 384 | Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species | ||
| Grasslands | 1697 | 1648 | 1708 | 1760 | 1790 | 1704 | 1617 | 1499 | 1403 | 1345 | 1281 | 1201 | Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species' | ||
| Energy Biomass | 2 | 8 | 19 | 53 | 85 | 101 | 105 | 125 | 127 | 120 | 106 | 102 | |||
| Forest | 1529 | 1529 | 1472 | 1410 | 1346 | 1370 | 1429 | 1494 | 1552 | 1608 | 1662 | 1722 | |||
| Others | 1955 | 2001 | 1933 | 1857 | 1818 | 1864 | 1906 | 1958 | 2014 | 2051 | 2109 | 2171 | |||
| Total | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | 5579 | |||
| Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) | |||||||||||||||
| Fossil Fuel CO2 | GtC | 0.72 | 1.01 | 1.81 | 3.11 | 4.71 | 6.41 | 7.31 | 7.61 | 7.61 | 7.11 | 6.41 | 5.51 | ||
| Other CO2 | GtC | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.01 | -0.08 | -0.10 | 0.02 | 0.20 | -0.01 | -0.03 | Approximate calculation from complex land-use module | |
| Total CO2 | GtC | 1.45 | 1.83 | 2.25 | 3.84 | 5.31 | 6.42 | 7.24 | 7.51 | 7.63 | 7.31 | 6.41 | 5.48 | ||
| CH4 total | MtCH4 | 77 | 85 | 105 | 134 | 154 | 158 | 166 | 176 | 183 | 184 | 171 | 160 | ||
| N2O total | MtN2O-N | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | ||
| SOx total | MtS | 10.5 | 12.8 | 21.8 | 32.0 | 45.5 | 54.4 | 57.2 | 57.0 | 53.9 | 48.5 | 42.4 | 35.9 | ||
| HFC | MtC eq. | 0 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 81 | 139 | 184 | 205 | 210 | 210 | 206 | 196 | ||
| PFC | MtC eq. | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 30 | ||
| SF6 | MtC eq. | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 32 | 40 | 42 | 37 | 23 | 24 | 26 | ||
| CO | MtCO | 396 | 404 | 326 | 425 | 422 | 302 | 317 | 365 | 437 | 490 | 456 | 465 | ||
| NMVOC | Mt | 48 | 55 | 55 | 63 | 67 | 62 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 64 | 60 | ||
| NOx | MtN | 7 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 21 | ||