IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1 (July, 2000) |
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World - A1 AIM |
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1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
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Population |
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Million |
5262 |
6117 |
6805 |
7493 |
8182 |
8439 |
8704 |
8538 |
8375 |
8030 |
7528 |
7056 |
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GNP/GDP
(mex) |
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Trillion US$ |
20.9 |
26.7 |
37.9 |
56.5 |
89.1 |
127.1 |
181.3 |
235.1 |
304.7 |
377.4 |
446.6 |
528.5 |
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GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
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Final
Energy |
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EJ |
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Non-commercial |
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50 |
50 |
38 |
36 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Solids |
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36 |
38 |
50 |
62 |
75 |
75 |
75 |
60 |
49 |
39 |
31 |
25 |
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Liquids |
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111 |
124 |
155 |
197 |
231 |
264 |
302 |
334 |
369 |
388 |
387 |
387 |
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Gas |
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51 |
53 |
89 |
134 |
194 |
239 |
295 |
335 |
380 |
410 |
421 |
432 |
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Electricity |
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38 |
49 |
73 |
104 |
143 |
218 |
331 |
438 |
581 |
709 |
798 |
898 |
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Others |
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Total |
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285 |
314 |
405 |
532 |
669 |
819 |
1002 |
1180 |
1388 |
1550 |
1643 |
1741 |
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Primary
Energy |
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EJ |
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Coal |
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93 |
99 |
134 |
163 |
179 |
182 |
186 |
165 |
148 |
126 |
103 |
84 |
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Oil |
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143 |
167 |
209 |
238 |
239 |
226 |
214 |
188 |
166 |
149 |
136 |
125 |
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Gas |
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73 |
91 |
147 |
196 |
298 |
372 |
465 |
519 |
578 |
604 |
590 |
576 |
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Nuclear |
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6 |
8 |
16 |
30 |
53 |
81 |
123 |
125 |
127 |
116 |
95 |
78 |
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Biomass |
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50 |
48 |
38 |
61 |
85 |
128 |
193 |
247 |
315 |
360 |
368 |
376 |
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Other Renewables |
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10 |
12 |
15 |
23 |
40 |
82 |
167 |
278 |
464 |
662 |
808 |
987 |
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Total |
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376 |
424 |
559 |
711 |
895 |
1098 |
1347 |
1574 |
1840 |
2034 |
2128 |
2226 |
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Cumulative
Resources Use |
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ZJ |
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Coal |
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0.1 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
7.0 |
9.1 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
13.6 |
14.7 |
15.9 |
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Oil |
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0.1 |
1.7 |
3.6 |
5.8 |
8.2 |
10.2 |
12.7 |
14.4 |
16.3 |
18.0 |
19.4 |
20.8 |
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Gas |
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0.1 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
3.8 |
6.3 |
9.3 |
13.9 |
18.2 |
23.9 |
29.8 |
35.5 |
42.2 |
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Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
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GtC |
0.0 |
75.3 |
169.6 |
287.2 |
422.8 |
571.9 |
730.6 |
892.5 |
1051.1 |
1205.7 |
1353.1 |
1492.1 |
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Carbon
Sequestraction |
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GtC |
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Land Use |
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Million ha |
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Cropland |
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1459 |
1466 |
1462 |
1457 |
1454 |
1448 |
1442 |
1436 |
1429 |
1424 |
1422 |
1420 |
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Grasslands |
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3389 |
3404 |
3429 |
3446 |
3458 |
3478 |
3498 |
3525 |
3552 |
3568 |
3572 |
3576 |
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Energy Biomass |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
158 |
257 |
418 |
484 |
560 |
580 |
536 |
495 |
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Forest |
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4296 |
4237 |
4173 |
4164 |
4164 |
4177 |
4190 |
4194 |
4199 |
4202 |
4203 |
4204 |
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Others |
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3805 |
3842 |
3886 |
3807 |
3715 |
3554 |
3400 |
3299 |
3201 |
3173 |
3213 |
3253 |
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Total |
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12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
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Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
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Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5.99 |
6.90 |
9.68 |
12.12 |
14.01 |
14.95 |
16.01 |
15.70 |
15.43 |
14.83 |
13.94 |
13.10 |
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Other CO2 |
GtC |
1.11 |
1.07 |
1.20 |
0.52 |
0.47 |
0.40 |
0.37 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.35 |
0.36 |
0.39 |
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Total CO2 |
GtC |
7.10 |
7.97 |
10.88 |
12.64 |
14.48 |
15.35 |
16.38 |
16.00 |
15.73 |
15.18 |
14.30 |
13.49 |
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CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
373 |
421 |
466 |
458 |
452 |
410 |
373 |
341 |
314 |
289 |
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N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6.7 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.3 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
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SOx total |
MtS |
70.9 |
69.0 |
87.1 |
100.2 |
91.0 |
68.9 |
64.1 |
46.9 |
35.7 |
30.7 |
29.1 |
27.6 |
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CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
791 |
337 |
369 |
482 |
566 |
654 |
659 |
654 |
639 |
614 |
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PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
31 |
43 |
61 |
77 |
89 |
97 |
106 |
114 |
119 |
115 |
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SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
43 |
48 |
66 |
99 |
119 |
127 |
113 |
88 |
84 |
95 |
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CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
1002 |
1032 |
1109 |
1160 |
1214 |
1245 |
1276 |
1357 |
1499 |
1663 |
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NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
178 |
222 |
266 |
272 |
279 |
284 |
289 |
269 |
228 |
193 |
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NOx
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MtN |
31 |
32 |
39 |
46 |
50 |
49 |
48 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
41 |
40 |
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