IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1 (July, 2000) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ASIA - A1 AIM |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Population |
|
Million |
2798 |
3261 |
3556 |
3851 |
4147 |
4183 |
4220 |
4016 |
3822 |
3541 |
3194 |
2882 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
|
Trillion US$ |
1.5 |
2.7 |
5.8 |
12.3 |
26.2 |
40.5 |
62.7 |
85.4 |
116.2 |
147.6 |
174.9 |
207.3 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
|
EJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
28 |
25 |
18 |
14 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
15 |
22 |
34 |
44 |
56 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
39 |
31 |
25 |
20 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
11 |
17 |
30 |
48 |
65 |
75 |
87 |
99 |
112 |
118 |
115 |
112 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
8 |
17 |
37 |
51 |
70 |
90 |
115 |
136 |
147 |
160 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
5 |
8 |
15 |
27 |
44 |
72 |
117 |
161 |
223 |
280 |
319 |
363 |
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
61 |
75 |
105 |
151 |
205 |
261 |
331 |
404 |
495 |
567 |
610 |
655 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
|
EJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
39 |
64 |
87 |
108 |
106 |
104 |
94 |
86 |
73 |
59 |
48 |
|
|
Oil |
|
17 |
27 |
45 |
62 |
68 |
59 |
51 |
44 |
38 |
33 |
30 |
27 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
8 |
17 |
35 |
66 |
95 |
137 |
167 |
203 |
228 |
235 |
243 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
15 |
26 |
45 |
47 |
50 |
46 |
38 |
32 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
28 |
24 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
29 |
46 |
58 |
75 |
85 |
87 |
89 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
24 |
58 |
101 |
177 |
261 |
323 |
399 |
|
|
Total |
|
80 |
100 |
149 |
214 |
285 |
354 |
440 |
533 |
646 |
734 |
784 |
838 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
|
ZJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
6.5 |
7.4 |
8.0 |
8.7 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
8.4 |
10.6 |
13.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
|
GtC |
0.0 |
17.8 |
44.2 |
81.3 |
128.7 |
183.5 |
241.6 |
301.6 |
362.2 |
422.7 |
481.2 |
537.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
|
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
435 |
434 |
433 |
432 |
431 |
431 |
430 |
429 |
428 |
428 |
428 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
606 |
609 |
611 |
613 |
615 |
617 |
618 |
619 |
621 |
622 |
624 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
37 |
61 |
99 |
115 |
133 |
137 |
127 |
117 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
522 |
512 |
524 |
535 |
535 |
535 |
544 |
552 |
556 |
555 |
555 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
601 |
609 |
579 |
547 |
514 |
483 |
455 |
429 |
421 |
431 |
441 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1.15 |
1.78 |
2.92 |
4.11 |
5.21 |
5.46 |
5.73 |
5.86 |
5.99 |
5.89 |
5.57 |
5.27 |
|
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0.37 |
0.26 |
0.33 |
0.05 |
0.12 |
0.17 |
0.25 |
0.16 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.14 |
0.19 |
|
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1.53 |
2.03 |
3.25 |
4.16 |
5.32 |
5.64 |
5.98 |
6.02 |
6.10 |
5.99 |
5.71 |
5.46 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
145 |
171 |
207 |
210 |
214 |
183 |
156 |
138 |
127 |
117 |
|
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
|
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17.7 |
25.3 |
42.1 |
54.2 |
45.6 |
19.8 |
8.4 |
7.9 |
7.5 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
18 |
45 |
92 |
153 |
224 |
292 |
292 |
285 |
275 |
262 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
23 |
30 |
35 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
48 |
46 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
28 |
42 |
50 |
55 |
48 |
35 |
33 |
37 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
358 |
360 |
430 |
460 |
492 |
506 |
520 |
555 |
614 |
678 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
49 |
70 |
94 |
99 |
105 |
112 |
119 |
111 |
90 |
73 |
|
|
NOx
|
MtN |
7 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|