SRES Writing Team Brief

To be most useful for the future work of the IPCC and other scientific assessments, the new reference scenarios must meet several criteria.

The Writing team aims to meet the needs of three main user communities:

These three groups are interested in different time-scales, and different degrees of regional and/or sectoral detail. Climate modelers and analysts of climate impacts need scenarios covering the period over which substantial changes in GHG concentrations are anticipated: on the order of 100 years. Climate modelers need global concentrations of GHG gases and spatially explicit information e.g., on sulfate aerosols (see also {recommendations to users of new scenarios}). Climate impact analysis needs a high degree of spatial resolution of climate impacts and detail of socio-economic background information such as per capita income levels, to assess vulnerability to climate changes. Mitigation analysts are far more interested in detailed economic and technological developments over the next 20-30 years. Many politicians and mitigation policy analysts are interested mainly in the period to 2010, roughly the span of current commitments under the Kyoto Protocol of Parties in Annex I to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation policy analysis tends to be focused more on the medium-term, which is around 20-50 years.