Please note that the data and information posted under the "Open Process" are for historical information only. They were preliminary information released in 1998-1999 as part of the SRES open process and for use in analysis to be contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). For final data (version 1.1) please go back to home page and follow the link.

Why Storylines?

The last effort by the IPCC to develop GHG emission scenarios took place in 1992. The well known IS92 scenarios consisted mainly of a series of runs from one model of future GHG emissions with aggregated results published for four world regions and at a high degree of sectoral aggregation. These model runs tested out the effects of a variety of assumptions regarding GHG emissions through 2100, in particular about growth in population and GDP. There were no explicit storylines in the IS92 scenarios. The 1994 evaluation of the IS92 scenarios concluded that these scenarios were useful as input into climate model simulations, but as they were not designed for other uses, they could not serve as input to climate impact and mitigation analyses. In addition, the scenarios needed to be updated to reflect recent developments, such as the economic depression in the former economies of Europe.

In the SRES, the writing team decided to develop storylines for several reasons: