In 1996, the plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) charged Working Group III of the Panel to develop a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), including a new set of scenarios for the emissions of greenhouse gases. The scenarios are "non-intervention scenarios", implying that no explicit additional climate policies are to be assumed. In early 1997, a writing team with broad representation from all regions and from industrial and environmental NGOs started the preparation of this report under the leadership of Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic of IIASA. By now, the writing team has (a) performed an extensive review of literature, pertinent to emissions of greenhouse gases and the associated driving forces, (b) developed an extensive scenario database, (c) developed four sets of qualitative storylines describing possible futures, and (d) concluded a preliminary quantification of these storylines in terms of energy and landuse emissions, based on the modelling work of 6 different groups. The writing team has developed four "marker scenarios " which are representative of the wide spectrum of scenarios found in the literature. Modeling results for these marker scenarios are included. The emissions data for the marker scenarios which have been harmonized for use in modeling experiments are also available.
In order to broaden the regional and sectoral contributions to this important report, an "open process" has been ongoing since August 20,1998, in which all experts in the area of long-term scenarios and their driving forces can take part.
This web site is the basis for the next stage in the process, in which the writing team is inviting your feedback on the scenarios they have developed.
While these marker scenarios should not be quoted as approved IPCC material,
the IPCC Bureau at its meeting, July 2, 1998, in Germany, agreed that the
climate modeling community can use these new (unapproved) emission scenarios,
so that they can incorporate them into their climate models for timely submission
and publication in peer-reviewed journals and then assessment by the lead
authors of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. If you plan to use these
scenarios for this purpose, please inform the Technical Support Unit of IPCC Working
Group III (rob.swart@rivm.nl).
The data and information under Open Process are preliminary information
released in 1998-1999 as part of the SRES open process and for use in analysis
to be contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). The final SRES report
and associated emissions scenarios are to be considered for approval by the
WG III plenary session in March 2000.
