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A2 Marker Scenario

Alexei Sankovski

 

1. Storyline Summary

In this world the main emphasis is on a strengthening of regional and local culture, with a "return to family values" in many regions. The A2 world "consolidates" into a series of roughly continental economic regions in a retreat from globalization trends of the 1990s, emphasizing local cultural roots. In some regions, increased religious participation leads many to reject a materialist path and to focus their attention on contributing to the local community. Elsewhere, the trend is towards increased investment in education and science and growth in economic productivity. Social and political structures diversify, with some regions moving towards stronger welfare systems and reduced income inequality, while others move towards "lean" government. Environmental concerns are relatively weak although attention is paid to bringing local pollution under control and maintaining local environmental amenities.

The A2 world sees more international conflict and less cooperation than A1 or B1. People, ideas and capital are less mobile so that technology diffuses slowly. International disparities in productivity, and hence income per capita, are maintained or increased. With the emphasis on family and community life, fertility rates decline only slowly, although they vary among regions. Hence, this scenario family has high population growth (to 15 billion by 2100) with low income per capita relative to the A1 and B1 worlds, at US$7,000 in 2050.

Technological change is rapid in some regions and slow in others as industry adjusts to local resource endowments, culture, and education levels. Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources evolve more resource intensive economies, while those poor in resources place very high priority on minimizing import dependence, through technological innovation to improve resource efficiency and make use of substitute inputs. The fuel mix in different regions is determined primarily by resource availability, and divisions among regions persist in terms of their mix of technologies, with high-income but resource-poor regions shifting toward advanced and renewable technologies and low-income resource-poor regions generally relying on older fossil technologies.

With substantial food requirements, agricultural productivity is one of the main focus areas for innovation and R&D efforts in this future. Initially disastrous levels of soil erosion and water pollution are eventually managed through the local development of more sustainable high-yield agriculture.

Although attention is given to potential local and regional environmental damage, it is not uniform across regions. The A2 world sees high energy and carbon intensity, and correspondingly high GHG emissions. CO2 emissions are the highest of all four storylines.

The regionally diverse nature of the A2 scenario family means that many more variants are possible than in A1 or B1. However, this diversity is extremely difficult to capture in world energy, economic and climate models which would need to be specified at the regional level. Hence, no variants have been proposed.

 

2. Implementation with the ASF model

 

2.1 Introduction

In the A2 scenario family, current political, cultural, and economic tensions between regions and countries lead to an increased emphasis on national self-determination and cultural identity. Such negative features of the globalization trend as economic instability and blurring of cultural identities become so pronounced that both developed and developing countries choose to limit their exposure to international economic and political forces and processes and instead concentrate on internal affairs. Geopolitically, this strategy is supported by an increased availability of nuclear weapons with their potential to defer potential aggressors. Economically, the heterogeneous A2 world is based on a greater self-sufficiency of individual countries and regions where cross-regional trade is allowed by does not become a matter of survival. Finally, the social and cultural life of individual countries and regions is guided primarily by their internal historic, ethnic, and environmental conditions rather than by the international entertainment industry and "universal" human values. In order to survive in the heterogeneous world smaller and less economically developed countries form alliances with their neighbors with a similar cultural identity and political structure. This leads to emergence of several more or less compact regions with trade and other exchanges between them much less pronounced than within each region.

2.2 Scenario drivers

2.2.1 Population and economy

The return to traditional values and strengthening of "nation-state" priorities leads to an increased emphasis on the local community and family, tending to maintain high fertility levels. Population growth in most of the world regions remains uninterrupted with world population reaching 15 billion in 2100 (Table 1). Larger number of children per family is also driven by slow technology improvements in agriculture that increases the need for a larger agricultural labor force.

In the low-income regions population grows faster than that in medium and high-income regions. The Americas, Europe and Asia continue to experience falling fertility rates but still see significant population growth through to 2100. Aging of the population is significant in these regions, especially during the first half of the 21st century. The Middle East and Africa see the most rapidly rising population although the rate of growth decreases with time. These regions maintain a larger proportion of young people.

Table 1 : Population by world and regions (1990, 2020, 2050, and 2100) in Millions and annual change (in percent) 1990-2100.

Region

1990

2020

2050

2100

1990-2100

in %/yr

OECD

848

1030

1151

1496

0.52%

EFSU

420

455

519

706

0.47%

ASIA

2779

4308

5764

7340

0.89%

ROW

1217

2398

3862

5526

1.39%

World

5264

8191

11296

15068

0.96%

 

In the A2 world, countries that have historically relied on their rate of innovation to stay competitive in international markets increasingly have to compete on the basis of wages or else erect trade barriers. At the same time, developing countries exhaust their capacity for rapid economic growth (fuelled, primarily, by exports of hydrocarbons and low-tech consumer goods). These trends are further strengthened by a general inability of multilateral economic and political institutions to overcome global market inefficiencies and country-level development barriers (e.g., lack of education, malnutrition, cultural antagonism, etc.). Countries and regions pursue different economic strategies based on the resources and options available to them. Trade within economic regions increases, while trade between regions is controlled by tariff and non-tariff barriers to support the region's economic strategy. High-income regions restrict immigration and impose selective controls on technology transfer to maintain their income differential. Trade is also dampened by differences in consumer tastes, sharpened by a search for cultural identity.

Heterogeneous A2 world is characterized by a general slow-down in the global average productivity growth (similar to the one that has occurred in recent decades in the OECD countries), which combined with the rapid population growth results in relatively slow (as compared with other scenarios) growth in per capita incomes (Tables 2 and 3). Slow income growth in low-income regions is explained in part by the acute deficit of resources that can be invested in health care, education or in research and development. Investment from other regions is constrained. Thus exports are primarily products manufactured with low cost labor and some natural resource-intensive products. The economically developed regions also experience decreasing income growth fuelled, primarily, by the loss of global markets and a decline in the rate of technological innovation. The economic slow-down and "cooling" of inter-regional relations forces certain re-evaluation of 20-th century consumption patterns and a shift to an economic development paradigm emphasizing national identity and self-limitation.

Economic models used in different countries and regions become more diverse with the "pure" free-market model with its reliance on monetary regulation and reduced government intervention loosing its appeal in many developing nations as unable to provide "fair" distribution of wealth and social opportunities. There is a limited re-vitalization of socialist and even communist elements in economy and social life. These elements though do not have a pan-national form but are adapted to cultural and environmental realities of a specific region or country. The distribution of wealth, especially in developing countries becomes more equal reflecting the need to maintain social stability in the face of outside military threats. Income inequality becomes more pronounced between regions rather than within each region. Intraregional income inequality is still being steadily reduced as reflected by changes in the ratio between GNP per capita in the OECD (the highest value) and Asia (the lowest value) regions. This ratio reduces from over 35 in 1990 to 7.5 in 2100.

Table 2. GNP by world and regions (1990, 2020, 2050, 2100) in Trillion $90 and annual change (in percent) 1990-2100.

Region

1990

2020

2050

2100

1990-2100

in %/yr

OECD

15.7

26.0

39.9

87.6

1.60%

EFSU

1.0

1.4

3.7

14.2

2.50%

ASIA

1.7

5.3

15.0

57.1

3.40%

ROW

2.6

7.8

23.0

83.8

3.29%

World

20.9

40.5

81.6

242.8

2.29%

 

Table 3. GNP per capita by world and regions (1990, 2020, 2050, 2100) in $90/cap and annual change (in percent) 1990-2100.

Region

1990

2020

2050

2100

1990-2100

in %/yr

OECD

18514

25243

34666

58556

1.08%

EFSU

2381

3077

7129

20113

2.01%

ASIA

612

1230

2602

7779

2.50%

ROW

2136

3253

5955

15165

1.88%

World

3971

4944

7224

16112

1.32%

 

2.2.2 Resource availability

Initial resource assumptions for the A2 world are rather conservative and reflect the fact that technological and economic limitations in this scenario impede the use of non-traditional energy resources such as methane clathrates, etc. (Table 4).

Due to a slow technological progress, reduced environmental concerns, and low land availability the energy needs of the A2 world are satisfied primarily by fossil and nuclear energy. However, regional energy shortages force countries to invest in such renewables as solar and biomass which in 2100 comprise over 20 percent of the primary energy supply.

Table 4. Ultimately recoverable energy as of 1985 in EJ.

Resource

Amount

Oil

18,749

Gas

28,535

Coal

143,051

2.2.3 Energy demand

Final energy intensity in the A2 world reduces steadily with the exception of the ROW region between 1990 and 2020. The fastest reduction occurs in the EE&FSU region and the slowest in the OECD region.

Table 5. Final energy intensity of GDP by world and regions (1990, 2020, 2050, 2100) in MJ/$ and annual change (in percent) 1990-2100.

Region

1990

2020

2050

2100

1990-2100

in %/yr

OECD

8.5

7.2

5.5

3.8

-0.73%

REFs

61.6

38.4

21.7

8.9

-1.76%

ASIA

30.1

27.8

18.4

8.3

-1.17%

ROW

12.8

14.6

10.5

5.3

-0.80%

World

12.8

12.4

10.0

5.7

-0.74%

2.2.4 Environmental policies and measures

Environmental concerns in the A2 world are locally strong, especially in high and medium income regions. Public concerns focus mainly on conventional urban and regional air pollution caused by traffic and energy use and on waste management. Sulfur emissions in most of the regions peak in the first half of the next century and then gradually reduce to levels lower than in 1990.

Global environmental problems are discussed extensively but the will and ability to tackle them is lacking. Propensity to worry about the environment is regionally variable.

2.2.5 Agriculture and forestry

The need to maintain or increase the productivity of agricultural land, especially in low-income regions, leads to the adoption of highly intensive agricultural techniques. This causes disastrous levels of soil erosion and water pollution with agrochemicals, which are eventually managed through the local development of more sustainable high-yield agriculture. Agricultural productivity increases with a rate sufficient for feeding a steadily increasing population.

A high demand for agricultural land sharply reduces the area of forest plantations and precludes the development of new afforestation and reforestation projects. Isolated patches of natural forest are preserved in national refuges and parks.